虽然我昨天批评过有些地震单元自证傻逼，但是我仍然相信，地震目前是难以预报的，不准确的预报，对避免灾害损失的作用可能不会很大，如果引起人心动荡，对当前处于麻烦不断的国民经济，是有打击的。地震是一项科学，地震的预测，也是一门科学，都是要讲究科学的方法的，而不仅仅凭灵异事件。地震的预报，尤其是向公众传达警告信息，则进一步牵涉到社会考量。
从SEO的角度，我相信用英文Google搜索“Earthquake Prediction”得到的前二位结果，是具有公信力的（Trust Rank），我粗略翻译一下，仅供大家参考。（限于水平，可能有错误，相信大致意思还没弄混）
第一段话来自WikiPedia（维基百科）：
An earthquake prediction is a prediction that an earthquake in a specific magnitude range will occur in a specific region and time window. Predictions are considered as such to the extent that they are reliable for practical, as well as scientific, purposes. Although there is evidence that at least some earthquakes in some tectonic regimes are predictable with useful accuracy of time and space, the reliability and reproducibility of prediction techniques have not been established and are therefore generally not accepted by seismologists. For practical purposes, seismologists bring forth seismic hazard assessment programs by estimating the probabilities that a given earthquake or suite of earthquakes will occur.
地震预报是关于地震的具体大小，将要地震的区域及一个时间窗口。预测被认为是可行的，尽管有证据表明，至少有一部分类型的地震的时间地点的预测是可行，但是可信度和可重复性的预测技术沿未被地震学家普遍接受。从可行的角度，地震学家通过估计地震或系列地震的可能性，形成了地震灾害评估计程序。
第二段，来自The Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network（太平洋西北部地震仪网络）
Because of their devastating potential, there is great interest in predicting the location and time of large earthquakes. Although a great deal is known about where earthquakes are likely, there is currently no reliable way to predict the days or months when an event will occur in any specific location.
由于地震的破坏潜力，预报大型地震的位置、时间非常吸引人。尽管知道哪儿地震有可能发生，但是目前没有可靠的方法去预测到何地将与某天或者某月发生地震。
[本文为Seo Vista原创，转载请注明]
